You have been waiting for the bus for 45 minutes, which is supposed to come every 15 minutes. The longer you wait the higher the chance that it might come, but you are not sure if it will certainly come. If you decide to give up waiting and take an alternative route you are certain that you will reach your destination on time. But since you have waited for so long why not just continue waiting? After all if the bus comes within the next 15 minutes you will be early, but if you decide to take the alternative route then you will be late.
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